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Decision analysis
Decision analysis (DA) is the discipline comprising the philosophy, theory, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner. Decision analysis includes many procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, clearly representing, and formally assessing important aspects of a decision, for prescribing a recommended course of action by applying the maximum expected utility action axiom to a well-formed representation of the decision, and for translating the formal representation of a decision and its corresponding recommendation into insight for the decision maker and other stakeholders.
==History and methodology==
Graphical representation of decision analysis problems commonly use influence diagrams and decision trees. Both of these tools represent the alternatives available to the decision maker, the uncertainty they face, and evaluation measures representing how well they achieve their objectives in the final outcome. Uncertainties are represented through probabilities. The decision maker's attitude to risk is represented by utility functions and their attitude to trade-offs between conflicting objectives can be made using multi-attribute value functions or multi-attribute utility functions (if there is risk involved). In some cases, utility functions can be replaced by the probability of achieving uncertain aspiration levels. Decision analysis advocates choosing that decision whose consequences have the maximum expected utility (or which maximize the probability of achieving the uncertain aspiration level). Such decision analytic methods are used in a wide variety of fields, including business (planning, marketing, and negotiation), environmental remediation, health care research and management, energy exploration, litigation and dispute resolution, etc.
Decision analysis is used by major corporations to make multi-billion dollar capital investments. In 2010, Chevron won the (Decision Analysis Society Practice Award ) for its use of decision analysis in all major decisions. In a (video ) detailing Chevron's use of decision analysis, Chevron Vice Chairman George Kirkland notes that "decision analysis is a part of how Chevron does business for a simple, but powerful, reason: it works."
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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